HOF nominees

Published Nov. 27, 2009 at 9:14 p.m.

The 2010 Hall of Fame ballot has been announced.  Of the 26 players, yet again the most interesting nominee is McGwire, on the ballot for the fourth time.  Andre Dawson and Bert Blyleven are also holdovers and perhaps have the best chance at induction.

Newcomers to the ballot include Roberto Alomar, Edgar Martinez, and Fred McGriff.  Nominees face a difficult task to move from a mere nominee to an inductee.  It requires a 75% vote in their favor from the several hundred eligible sportswriters to secure induction.  After the break I will include the full list of nominees and a breakdown on those most qualified for induction including one you might be surprised by.

The complete ballot includes the following: Roberto Alomar, Kevin Appier, Harold Baines, Bert Blyleven, Ellis Burks, Andre Dawson, Andres Galarraga, Pat Hentgen, Mike Jackson, Eric Karros, Ray Lankford, Barry Larkin, Edgar Martinez, Don Mattingly, Fred McGriff, Mark McGwire, Jack Morris, Dale Murphy, Dave Parker, Tim Raines, Shane Reynolds, David Segui, Lee Smith, Alan Trammell, Robin Ventura, Todd Zeile.

I think that can pretty easily be narrowed to the following 14 players as having a legitimate chance (with OPS+/ERA+ numbers for a quick reference):

Roberto Alomar (116 OPS+)Bert Blyleven (118 ERA+)Andre Dawson (119)Barry Larkin (116)Edgar Martinez (147)Don Mattingly (127)Fred McGriff (134)Mark McGwire (162)Jack Morris (105)Dale Murphy (121)Dave Parker (121)Tim Raines (123)Lee Smith (131)Robin Ventura (114)
It's an interesting group.  There are no Rickey Hendersons among the bunch.  The only lock down HOFer according to the numbers is McGwire, but we all know the *other* problem he presents.  (Incidentally, I heard an HOF voter on the radio the other day stating that he wouldn't vote for McGwire, not because of steroids, but because he "wasn't an HOF caliber player."  That's total hogwash.  Surely McGwire K'd too much and played 1B like a statue, but the 162 OPS+ along with the other counting numbers make him a lock were it not for his probable PED use.)
Before we move past McGwire -- having had this much time from his first induction, has your opinion changed of his HOF credentials at all?  I have to admit that my opinion has changed.  I'm not going to go picketing for the guy or anything, but Balco and all the other testimonies have made me more and more suspicious of any HOF nominees going forward.  I would support inducting McGwire, Clemens, et al, but would want some note of the suspicion/proof of their PED use noted.
Onto the other candidates: for some reason (Chicago homerism: cough, cough) Andre Dawson continues to get widespread support from the voting community and despite the anecdotal evidence that he was a good fielder (we don't have any fielding metrics going back to his hey day, mind you), I just don't see any way that an OF with a career 119 OPS+ warrants HOF induction.
Bert Blyleven, on the other hand, seems to get penalized for being stuck with crummy teams for his entire career, and it is likely the fact that three of his final four seasons were awful, the lasting memory of him among those who were still around wasn't as sparkling as it was before.  It seems to me Blyleven deserves a nod.
The player it might surprise you most that I would vote for is Fred McGriff.  The Crime Dog also spent most of his career mired in poor teams, but his counting numbers (nearly 2500 hits, 500 HRs) along with his outstanding OPS+ of 134 put him just into the HOF, in my opinion.  Sure, he played at a position with offensive fire power, but none more so than OF, where players with sub 120 OPS+'s are routinely considered.  Furthermore, check out his baseball reference page, where all four of his offensive measurables they have ranked as HOF worthy.  I doubt McGriff makes so much as a wave in the voting, though, which is too bad.
None of the other players, in my opinion, deserve inclusion, although the Alomar certainly deserves a long look since his numbers were put up at a position that is historically offensively challenged.  Edgar Martinez and Lee Smith also deserve long looks, although, while both have sparkling numbers, they did it at positions where such numbers are expected to be well above the norm (DH, closer).
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Poll
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Who is most deserving to be inducted in the 2010 HOF class?
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...Roberto Alomar
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...Bert Blyleven
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...Andre Dawson
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...Edgar Martinez
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...Fred McGriff
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...Mark McGwire
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...No one
    127 votes  Results
  




  

    
  
  


  
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